.png)
The Munich Security Conference 2023 or why it's dangerous not to talk to your enemies
- Carlos Marcelles de la Casa
- Mar 3, 2023
- 4 min read
Carlos Marcelles de la Casa
Although it is more of a saying than a quote, Sun Tzu said that you should keep your friends close, but your enemies even closer. Indeed, the 1919 Treaty of Versailles is a classic lesson in the dangers of not counting on your enemies. In light of this, in 2011, two historic rivals, the US and Russia, formally ratified the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START III), better known as the New Start. This was the last major nuclear non-proliferation treaty and is considered by some to be the true end of the Cold War arms race. It stipulated that both countries can have a maximum of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear weapons.
However, since January 2023, the United States has been warning that Russia was not complying with its obligations under the treaty in light of the failure of talks on the resumption of inspections of each country's nuclear arsenal, suspended since 2020 by Covid-19. Moreover, this treaty expires in 2026 and the Russian president cited that renewal negotiations are unlikely to take place unless the West agrees to talks on Ukraine without the participation of the Kiev government, something the US will not agree to (The New York Times, 2023).
It is also the same treaty that Vladimir Putin has threatened to suspend following Joe Biden's surprise visit to Kiev and then Poland on the eve of the anniversary of the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a result, Putin flirted with the possibility of resuming nuclear testing, albeit "always in response to US tests" (Financial Times, 2023). All in all, Moscow's intention to continue its invasion of Ukraine despite the failure of its blitzkrieg and the casualties it has suffered is clear.
Image 1: Biden with Zelensky in front of the church of St. Michael's Monastery of the Golden Domes in Kiev on 20/02/2023. Source: The New York Times, 2023.
But before Cold War tensions were resurrected, the place chosen to sign START III was the Munich Security Conference (hereafter MSC), the Davos of defence. This was no accident. The MSC had been established with the intention of being one of the world's most influential forums for global diplomacy. A modern-day agora where, after the fall of the Iron Curtain, enemies have traditionally debated and, occasionally, reached agreements.
This year, however, and on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that scenario of US-Russian cooperation is no longer possible. "Our relations have deteriorated and that is totally and utterly the fault of the United States", said the Russian leader in February 2023 (Mosolova & Olearchyk, 2023). Thus, any diplomatic overtures are out of the question for both countries. This has led to the fact that no representative of the Russian delegation, including Russia's experienced foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, has been invited to such an important international security event.
"Our relations have degraded and that is totally and utterly the fault of the United States."
In line with this, Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the MSC mentioned that "we are facing a break with civilisation and we have to accept the consequences of that". "No one can expect us to offer Lavrov, who is basically Putin's mouthpiece, a forum for his propaganda" (Financial Times, 2023).
The Russian delegation's veto has also been accompanied by that of the Iranian delegation in response to the crackdown on protests over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody.
The absence of Russia and Iran from the conference is bad news for everyone.
Created in 1963, the MSC evolved from a conference on military expertise among Western bloc allies into a forum for international debate beyond military matters. However, this spirit is dying and the MSC is returning to its roots in leaps and bounds. The Conference is thus being transformed into a meeting of ideologically and diplomatically like-minded powers, with the West in the lead. While the 2023 edition will continue to have representatives from Asia (China's participation is particularly interesting given the recent context of Chinese spy balloons flying over US airspace), Africa, and Latin America, the majority will be made up of European and US delegations.
The MSC must not return to its Cold War origins. Friends must be kept close, but enemies even closer.
This act risks continuing to sideline countries outside the Western orbit, causing the Conference's identity to mutate into yet another Western echo chamber. In this way, there will be little difference between the MSC and the International Security Forum in Halifax (Canada), which has a strict Western focus.
Not talking to your enemies is a very dangerous practice. That is why the absence of Russia and Iran from the conference is bad news for everyone. The MSC must not return to its Cold War origins. Keep friends close, but enemies even closer.
Bibliography
Financial Times. (2023). Russia to suspend participation in nuclear arms treaty with US.
Retrieved from Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/74a5d3f6-7e41-40e5-
Mosolova , D., & Olearchyk , R. (2023). Ukraine waiting for €33bn of pledges from
west. Retrieved from Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/d1c11d1f-cba4-
The New York Times. (2023). Biden’s Surreal and Secretive Journey Into a War Zone.
Retrieved from The New York Times:
Comments