A brief summary of this far from calm 2022

Pablo Soriano Linares

After four months of this year 2022, we have experienced a series of events that have shaken the international panorama as we knew it, disrupting the lives of millions of people around the world. From seeing how paying for electricity becomes an odyssey, to the drama of losing one's life in a war that until a few months ago was almost unthinkable, this year has been, to say the least, unprecedented.

That is why Open Analytica has thought of making a small summary of the main international events that have taken place in this far from calm 2022.

I. Ukraine

What for some analysts had been a growing danger in Eastern Europe, has ended up leading to the worst possible result: war has returned to the old continent in a magnitude greater than that seen during the dismemberment of Yugoslavia.

On February 24, Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" aimed at denazifying and demilitarizing Ukraine. In the words of the Russian president, "Ukraine posed a threat to Russia's security". Thus began the Russian assault on Ukrainian soil beyond the contested areas of Donesk and Lungask with missile attacks and ground forces crossing the border.

Beyond the traditional media, the social networks witnessed images that seemed to be taken out of a war fiction, where swarms of helicopters bombed an airport or paratroopers jumped on the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital. During those first days, from an external perspective, and with little more knowledge than the images that were coming in through different media, it seemed unlikely that Ukraine could withstand the Russian attack for little more than a week. The U.S. Department of Defense even predicted the fall of Kiev in two weeks.

However, days and weeks went by and all these forecasts fell one after the other. The Ukrainian army, trained and armed by the West, was proving to be a force capable of defending its home. The all-powerful Russian army, on the other hand, seemed to be evidencing terrible logistical problems and the major shortcomings carried over from the Soviet era did not seem to have been solved.

In addition to this, there was a surprising effect, both for the European and the foreign countries: Europe's reaction to the invasion. The forcefulness of the sanctions was expected by few, but even less the support of the European countries that, since the beginning of the war, have provided military material in a disinterested way. Although uneven in quantity, the support has been unanimous. NATO, until not too long ago, with a disparate view of its members on many issues, has shown itself to be an alliance of its own, where even the unthinkable accession of Sweden and Finland is now almost a reality. Even the EU, with its pluses and minuses, has shown forcefulness in its position and, as usual, forced by events, has mobilized to develop energy independence, firstly from Russia and secondly, with a view in the medium term to achieving real independence.

The war for its part continues. The Russians have withdrawn from the north in Kiev and seem to be redirecting their efforts in the east. Losses are put, according to Western intelligence sources, at over 10,000 on the Russian side, with the loss of their flagship in the Black Sea as the main banner. On the Ukrainian side, casualties are also high and, despite Western support, the suffering of the civilian population, in places like Bucha, where barbaric acts have been committed, is undeniable. These crimes must be prosecuted and those responsible must be condemned.

Finally, just as many did not believe that this war was possible, many will not believe that it can escalate. However, as the Russian government sees victory as more distant, the more likely it is to resort to more brutal and less precise tactics. The war, as you read these lines, will continue, so we can only hope that its end will come as soon as possible.

Image 1: A street in Bucha, Ukraine, after the withdrawal of Russian troops.

Source: Zelensky, 2022.

II. Conflict on Spain's southern border: Algeria - Morocco

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" or so goes the old saying. Faced with Morocco over various territorial disputes including the Sahara, Algeria must have thought that of Spain. Algeria sells cheap gas to Spain and in response, La Moncloa, which already has an uneasy relationship with Morocco, maintained a comfortable neutrality with the Saharawi conflict. Spain was Algeria's reliable neighbor.

However, all that changed a few weeks ago when, in the midst of one of the biggest energy crises of recent years, there was a shift in Spanish foreign policy towards the Sahara. The Spanish government recognized the autonomy plan drawn up by Rabat as "the most serious and realistic scenario."

This radical shift in Spain's position came as a surprise, both inside Spain, where the Parliament and even members of the executive branch were unaware of the president's idea, and outside, where both the Polisario Front and Algeria protested, calling the move a betrayal. Moreover, within the Spanish diplomatic corps, this sudden change of position was not understood.

The repercussions of this event have been various. Firstly, Pedro Sanchez met with Mohamed VI in Rabat for beyond the promise to respect the sovereignties of Ceuta and Melilla, (how minimal to respect the borders of your neighbor) there are no firm advances that are known publicly of any kind. On the other hand, Algeria has named Italy as its preferred partner in view of the increased demand for gas from Europe, which is logical, due to the better gas communications from Italy to the rest of Europe. For the continent, Spain's role in gas supply is linked to liquefied natural gas. Although this subject could be the subject of an article in itself.

The real repercussions for Spain in this change of position have been mainly the increase in the price of gas by Algeria exclusively to our country (El economista, 2022), the break by the Polisario Front with the Spanish government, and not knowing what tangible agreements have been achieved with Morocco, in exchange for this sudden and, apparently, lacking in strategic sense.

III. The United States

On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States continues to provide real-time information and intelligence to Ukraine along with financial and military assistance. However, Ukraine is not the only issue on the Americans' minds.

On the one hand, the White House is preparing to ship more liquefied natural gas to Europe, which will replace European energy dependence on Russian gas. On the other hand, it is keeping an eye on Asia, where for years it has been trying to pivot its foreign policy to contain the expansion of Chinese influence.

While maintaining its focus on the rest of the world, the United States is also facing a number of domestic challenges. With the Covid-19 pandemic in its final throes in the West, the new problem is the dreaded inflation. It is worth noting that this is not unique to the United States, as globally we are experiencing figures not seen for decades.

This inflation, unlike in Europe, where the price of energy is playing a much greater role in the rise in prices, is caused by the increase in the price of consumer goods. The angry stimulus

The massive stimulus packages following Covid-19, together with 0% interest rates, seem to have driven the revival in consumption. However, supply, paralyzed by various factors, has been unable to respond. All this has led to this rise in prices.

This is why the Fed is already talking about an imminent rate hike, which will please investors in U.S. Treasury bonds. However, the danger facing the Fed is how to complete this hike without triggering a recession, which would further worsen a scenario where global growth is already revised downwards. The withdrawal of stimulus and the shift in consumption habits from goods to services is expected to reduce inflation, but, at the same time, there is also a fear of falling short and inflation getting out of control.

IV. Asia-Pacific

China is immersed in a wave of the pandemic that, with its zero COVID policy, it does not seem to be able to control. The city of Shanghai is confined to points where hundreds of thousands of people have their food rationed because they cannot even go shopping. Because of this extreme confinement, dozens of ships are waiting to land in the port of Shanghai, which may cause even more disruption to global supply chains that have not yet recovered from the shock of the pandemic.

Image 2: congestion in Chinese ports.

Source: Bloomberg, 2022.

These internal problems have not prevented China from signing a security agreement with the Solomon Islands. This agreement has not pleased both Canberra and Washington, which see any Chinese expansion in the region as a threat.

AUKUS, a military alliance including the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia, was created a few months ago to reinforce security in the region and strengthen Australian military capabilities, in response to the expansion of Chinese influence in the Pacific. This alliance has been in the news again in recent days due to rumors that Japan had been invited to join. These speculations have been denied by the Japanese government, but Japan's interest in joining this group cannot be ruled out, especially when the primary objective of this alliance is to counteract Chinese influence in the region.

Image 3: Joe Biden announces the creation of AUKUS to the press.

Source: The World, 2022.

Bibliography

Bloomberg, 2022. China Port Congestion Worsens as Ningbo Shuts for a Week. Consultado online el 8/5/22 de:

https://www.bqprime.com/china/china-port-congestion-worsens-as-ningbo-shuts-for-seventh-day

El Economista, 2022. España se prepara para una subida del gas argelino mientras Italia acuerda importar un 50% más. El Economista.

El Mundo, 2022. El pacto Aukus se rearma frente a Rusia y China. Consultado online el 8/5/22 de: https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2022/04/09/624f12b2fdddff429f8b45be.html

Zelensky, 2022. President Zelensky in Flickr. Consultado online el 8/5/22 de: https://flickr.com/photos/president_of_ukraine/51988161974/

Open Analytica agradece a medios e individuos que se han dedicado a compartir con el mundo el día a día del terrible conflicto que se vive en Ucrania. Os dejamos algunos links a sus sitioºs webs/RR.SS. para los interesados en estos temas

• Revista Ejercitos en Twitter @REjercitos: https://www.revistaejercitos.com

• Oryx en Twitter @oryxspioenkop: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com

• Nolan Peterson; corresponsal de guerra en Twitter @nolanwpeterson

• Rob Lee; PHD student at Kings College y senior at Foreign Policy Research Institute en Twitter @RALee85