The future of NATO after Afghanistan

Better transatlantic coordination and more European strategic autonomy

Carlos Marcelles de la Casa

Biden Administration's decision to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan before the 20th anniversary of 9/11 was met with widespread displeasure by the rest of the NATO countries, who felt excluded from decision-making on operations in the country. The unilateral U.S. withdrawal decision has left NATO allies with no options. Ben Wallace, UK defense secretary tried to rally NATO members to maintain a contingent in Afghanistan (Niblett, 2021). However, this option was dismissed as unfeasible without infrastructure, intelligence, and logistical support from the U.S. This haughtiness on the part of the White House has been a constant since the invasion began in 2001. Nevertheless, the European powers were relatively satisfied that they were assured by the White House that the Coalition intervention, begun two decades ago, would lead to an end that was acceptable to NATO and positive for Afghanistan.

However, less than two weeks after the U.S. withdrawal, the Afghan military forces were defeated with virtually no fighting, and the hard-won government collapsed with little resistance. Two decades of achievements based on military sacrifices and astronomical investments vanished in a lightning defeat that has handed over practically the entire country to the Taliban. All these events have led to the images of chaos and despair at Kabul International Airport as NATO countries try to evacuate their nationals and local collaborators. The parallel with the fall of Saigon in 1975 is unavoidable, even if President Biden is at pains to steer the public away from making such comparisons (Forbes Breaking News, 2021). These events have not only exposed the flawed American understanding of the situation in Afghanistan, but has also called into question the confidence of NATO allies in American leadership. This is a setback for the Alliance for two reasons.

First, it has openly exposed NATO's dependence on U.S. tactical support, especially air support. Second, it has created doubts about Washington's commitment in future conflicts (Financial Times, 2021). This has been an even greater setback to European leaders, as they had hoped that the change of administration in the White House would break with Trump's isolationist foreign policy (dominant in the history of the American country until World War II). Europe has suddenly discovered that Biden is more Trump than it thought.

Europe has suddenly discovered that Biden is more Trump than it thought.

This leads to an ideal time for U.S. allies to reflect on their transatlantic commitments and the reasons for this military dependence. The Trump administration was and is right when it pointed to the lack of defense investment by many NATO members. Only 10 of the 29 member countries are above the alliance's recommended budget set at 2% of GDP. The Spanish case is particularly serious as barely 1.17% of GDP was allocated to defense in 2020 (Ministry of Defense, 2021).

These data, whether due to financial impossibility or lack of commitment, reveal the inability to create a common European army in what French President Emmanuel Macron described as necessary to achieve "strategic autonomy" (Finacial Times, 2021). Therefore, the exit from Afghanistan will not mean, at least in the medium term, any rupture between transatlantic relations, even if it is a matter of impossibility rather than of one's own will. The United States continues to play a key role in the defense of Europe's interests, especially vis-à-vis Russia. European military dependence will therefore remain a reality in the long term.

The exit from Afghanistan will not, at least in the medium term, imply any rupture in transatlantic relations,

Likewise, the Afghanistan fiasco will not divert the White House from its main foreign policy challenge, the rise of China. Indeed, the end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan is part of the U.S. strategy to refocus its strategic priorities and resources from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific (Niblett, 2021). In this sense, Washington's European allies are key to this strategy due to their commercial ties with the Asian giant and their presence in those international institutions where China seeks to alter the global balance of power, especially in terms of international trade and economic governance. With the firm commitment to maintain NATO, the United States gains the political support of Europe. Article 5 of the NATO Charter is a guarantee that Washington will defend the EU from its closest threat, Russia, and that Europe will support the United States politically vis-à-vis China.

The end of the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan is part of the U.S. strategy to refocus its strategic priorities and resources.

Thus, while the fall of the Afghan government has highlighted the importance of greater transatlantic coordination and strategic autonomy in Europe, it could also have a positive impact if it fosters more committed efforts in both areas. Greater collective European responsibility is needed to address specific interests that do not concern the Americans, such as security in North Africa and the Sahel. These regions, together with the eastern Mediterranean, will pose a major security problem for the European Union after the events in Afghanistan. The new Islamic Emirate could easily become a new breeding ground for Islamist terrorism and the source of a new humanitarian refugee crisis. Therefore, an improvement in European strategic autonomy will be necessary to take on the security challenges of Europe's southern border, while fostering transatlantic coordination will be key to address global security challenges and Europe's northern border. The Afghanistan experience must serve to deepen these objectives, both to ensure the future of European security and that those who died in Afghanistan did not die in vain. It is therefore not an option, but a joint duty of all Alliance members.

Enhanced European strategic autonomy will be necessary to take on the security challenges of Europe's southern border, while fostering transatlantic coordination will be key to addressing Europe's global and northern border security challenges.

Fortunately, it can be concluded that Washington's hasty and flawed exit from Afghanistan does not presage a rupture in transatlantic relations or a weakening of the White House's commitment to NATO's key objectives. At a time of growing global threats, the United States and Europe must continue to deepen transatlantic cooperation, but at the same time work towards improving transatlantic coordination and fostering Europe's strategic autonomy.

Bibliography

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