Taiwan, the clash between East and West

Pablo Soriano Linares

The island of Formosa, Republic of China or, as it is commonly known, Taiwan, is an island about 180 km from mainland China. This relatively small territory has once again been in the international spotlight following the visit of US Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi. So why has this visit caused such a stir? The answer lies in the complicated political and diplomatic situation in which the island has found itself for more than seven decades.

The problem dates back to the end of the Chinese Civil War (1949) when the Nationalist side, led by Chiang Kai-shek's Kuomintang, was defeated by Mao Zedong's Communists in mainland China. As a result, the former withdrew to the island of Formosa where they have remained ever since. The reason the Communists did not take the island was due, in addition to the incredible complexity of a naval landing of that magnitude, to the outbreak of the Korean War. The United States, in order to prevent the expansion of communism in the context of the early years of the Cold War, blockaded the Taiwan Strait with its navy, which put an end to any attempt at conquest by the newly formed People's Republic of China.

The end of the war materialized in two governments claiming to be the legitimate government of all of China. The People's Republic was recognized by the Soviet bloc and the Republic of China, based in Taipei, by the capitalist countries. The situation continued until the 1970s, when Kissinger reoriented U.S. foreign policy towards China, with the aim of countering the influence of the USSR. In short, this meant recognizing the Beijing government as the sole government of China and setting Taiwan aside politically, but without abandoning the commitment to defend the island against an attempt of conquest by the Beijing government.

Since then, the Taipei government has lost recognition by most countries and remains in diplomatic limbo. It acts as an independent state but with little international recognition. In addition, there is a tense relationship with the Beijing government with several crises in between, exacerbated by the growing Taiwanese pro-independence sentiment in the island's society and territorial claims in the South China Sea.

China, which regards the island as its own territory, does not take kindly to Taiwan's close relationship with the United States, let alone the visit of a senior U.S. government official to the island, the first of its kind in 25 years. This visit has raised tensions in the strait both before his arrival and after the departure of the US Congresswoman. The One China Policy is the position held by the People's Republic of China (PRC) that there is only one sovereign state with the name China, with the PRC being the only legitimate government of that China, and Taiwan is a part of China.

Since learning of Pelosi's intentions, the Chinese government threatened retaliation and even hints by Beijing officials of shooting down the congresswoman's plane. Following the visit, the escalation has escalated with the largest cross-strait maneuvers since the last crisis in the late 1990s.

Image 1; in red the designated areas where maneuvers are to take place.

Source: Hille, 2022.

Analysts agree that China is not seeking to escalate to armed conflict for the time being. It intends to make a show of force in the face of both the United States and the Taiwanese government. It is true that after the visit and subsequent maneuvers, the status quo on the island seems to have shifted to a more hostile scenario.

The One China Policy is the position held by the People's Republic of China (PRC) that there is only one sovereign state with the name China, with the PRC being the only legitimate government of that China, and Taiwan is a part of China.

However, what are the possible developments of this conflict? Firstly, if these maneuvers become recurrent, they could be the prelude to a blockade of the island. This would have effects on the global economy because of Taiwan's role as a leading semiconductor manufacturer. With this move. China would seek to force Taipei to reconsider the benefits of maintaining its "rebellious" stance towards Beijing. Such a blockade could force a response from Western democracies that would protest against such an action, more out of self-interest than conviction.

A second scenario, which is posed in the long term, is the conquest of the island by force. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shown that unthinkable scenarios are not always unthinkable. Xi Jinping has repeatedly stressed that reunification with Taiwan is a top priority and to this end he has articulated during his term of office the modernization and reform of the Chinese military.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shown that unthinkable scenarios are not always unthinkable.

Likewise, it is not only from Washington that these moves are viewed with suspicion. Japan, faced with the increasing expansion of the capabilities of the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the continuous threats to Taiwan, is rethinking not only its military doctrine, but also establishing agreements with Taipei, similar to the American ones.

No one dares venture to predict the future of this conflict. Xi Jinping is seeing how his Russian counterpart has made the invasion of Ukraine complicated and, as we have mentioned, conquering an island adds another level of complexity to an invasion by force. Another fact is the rather poor performance of Russian military hardware (of which Chinese equipment is mostly based on) in the war in Ukraine versus the hardware sent from the West. With all this, it is not foreseeable that in the near future it will seek to use military means to take over the island. On the Taiwanese side, Admiral Lee Hsi-min in his article in The Economist believes that it is essential that lessons be learned from the tactics and strategies employed by Ukraine against an enemy with superior numbers, if the island is to ensure its survival in a hypothetical conflict.

On the Taiwanese side, Admiral Lee Hsi-min in his article in The Economist believes that it is essential that lessons be learned in the tactics and strategies employed by Ukraine in the face of an enemy superior in numbers.

The future is quite uncertain. China, with increasing power in the region, is seeking to ensure its regional hegemony, but internal problems (Covid and the resulting economic crisis) may force its rulers to make increasingly erratic moves. For its part, the United States is focusing on Asia to maintain its dominant position and countries such as Japan and Australia see China's growing influence as a threat to their security. Meanwhile, at the center of it all, an island of 36M KM2 with 23 million inhabitants and the center of the world's microprocessors, is torn between its Chinese past and a future vacillating between evolving towards something new or returning under Beijing's rule.

Bibliography

Hille, K. and Sevastopulo, D., 2022. China is ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan. What will the US do next?. [online] Ft.com. [Accessed 15 August 2022]. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/c6a1e2e3-d143-486c-b7bf-969d61657b09

Hille, K., 2022. China’s military response to Pelosi visit raises escalation fears. [online] Ft.com. [Accessed 15 August 2022]. Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/4c97b3c5-bf30-4971-ba7c-9ad5e74389b7

The Economist. 2022. Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan to secure his legacy, warn Admiral Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee. [online] [Accessed 15 August 2022]. Available at: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/08/03/xi-jinping-may-attack-taiwan-to-secure-his-legacy-warn-admiral-lee-hsi-min-and-eric-lee